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Sundries
...a sweatshop of moxie

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

My Electoral College Predictions




Thoughts? Critiques? Predictions of your own?

IN THE COMMENTS: Ben (The Tiger) corrects me that North Carolina is a solidly Red state. Quite true.

Ron asks us to consider the Kwame Kilpatrick situation in his home State. I agree, but that economy has been hurtin', and recent news doesn't make me confident about Michigan.

Also, JSU says:

If McCain wins, it will be by 300+EVs.


Coincidentally, this was my September 7, 2008 prediction at the height of Palinpalooza.



I had chosen New Jersey as the State which may completely surprise us (there's always one), but they say that New York is possibly now in play. That would be amazing.

UPDATE: Hah, you all laughed, but according to Powerline, McCain is only down 3 pts in New Jersey in today's Quinnipac poll. I think New York will stay blue, but New Jersey will be a purply red.

Related

Create Your Own Electoral Map 1
Create Your Own Electoral Map 2
Create Your Own Electoral Map 3

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8 Comments:

  • Doesn't McCain have a double digit lead in NC now?

    Your map is otherwise plausible... (Though I think he may take PA or MI...)

    By Blogger Ben (The Tiger), at Tue Sep 16, 01:01:00 am GMT-4  

  • Doesn't McCain have a double digit lead in NC now?

    Hey, Ben!

    Yes, darn it, what was I thinking. Well, I'll stand by it as a testament to my humility (err, stupid error).

    I am thinking that McCain will take Minnesota, Ohio and Virginia, but not Michigan or Pennysylvania this time.

    We'll see. :)

    Cheers,
    Victoria

    By Blogger vbspurs, at Tue Sep 16, 01:13:00 am GMT-4  

  • If McCain loses, it will be by a miniscule EC margin as he holds the Bush midwest but drops, say, NM/CO/SD while failing to win other battlegrounds by greater than the margin of urban cheating in Philly, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Detroit, and Seattle (ask Dino Rossi about that one).

    If McCain wins, it will be by 300+EVs.

    By Blogger JSU, at Tue Sep 16, 01:33:00 am GMT-4  

  • The whole Kwame Kilpatrick scandal may wind up hurting Obama, as he stumped for him, I believe. Michigan may be more of a tossup than you think.

    By Blogger Ron, at Tue Sep 16, 01:43:00 am GMT-4  

  • McCain wins NJ but not PA? Really?

    Lots of bitter clingers, ya know. ;)

    By Blogger JSU, at Tue Sep 16, 02:36:00 am GMT-4  

  • L'economie...I'm not hopeful in those rust belts.

    Cheers,
    Victoria

    By Blogger vbspurs, at Tue Sep 16, 02:39:00 am GMT-4  

  • The rust belt should probably be torn down and re-started.

    Meh. The whole society should be.

    Meanwhile, I've been keeping track of everyone's predictions on Althouse. I think it'll make a fun post in November.

    By Blogger blake, at Tue Sep 16, 06:26:00 am GMT-4  

  • I predicted Wisconsin will go red, and this week it shifted from leaning Obama to toss up. More hard numbers please.

    By Blogger chickenlittle, at Wed Sep 17, 04:57:00 pm GMT-4  

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